While exceptionally hot, dry stretch is becoming a concern, state officials say we're not in dire straits just yet.
On paper, a tally of New Jersey's recent run of dry weather sounds troubling.
The entire state has incurred significant precipitation deficits in July and August, and most have not seen a drop of rain in two weeks. Reservoir levels crashed last month, leading United Water to call for voluntary restrictions on water usage. And today, the U.S. Drought Monitor placed much of northeastern New Jersey -- and 4.1 million people -- under a "moderate drought" designation.
Cause for concern? Absolutely. But are state officials panicking? Hardly.
"In the past two months, the trend has clearly been drier," said Dan Kennedy, the state Department of Environmental Protection's Commissioner for Water Resources. "But the bottom line is many summers are dry. That's why we have reservoirs. The reservoirs are doing their jobs and water purveyors are well set up to deal with these high demands."
"Are we monitoring it closely? Yes. We wouldn't be doing our jobs if we weren't."
By all indications, New Jersey is headed in the wrong direction when it comes to water. In addition to reservoirs operating below average levels, streamflows and ground water levels are also low, particularly in the northeast quadrant of the state.
As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor placed parts of Somerset, Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Bergen Counties in a "moderate drought" designation, the nationwide research organization's label for regions in the earliest stages of drought conditions.
"In the past few weeks, everyone has had their eyes slowly opened and realized there is a problem brewing," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University, who is part of a panel that issues the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor reports. "Because if this persists much longer we're going to be in a deeper hole as we finish the water consumption season, and that's not good as we look toward 2016."
But the DEP is the only agency that can formally issue a drought watch, warning or emergency in New Jersey -- designations that can trigger statewide actions such as water restrictions and rationing. Kennedy said the DEP not only considers climatological conditions, but the relative health of the overall water supply and how it projects to fluctuate over the next six months.
"We learned a lot of lessons from the droughts in the 60s and 80s," Kennedy said. "In New Jersey, our high quality and well integrated water systems and reservoirs help us out a great deal. As a result a lack a precipitation doesn't hit us as hard."
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Officials within the DEP currently meet several times a week to assess the situation Kennedy said. He conceded that if conditions continue to worsen, the state could be pressed toward taking more significant action.
Robinson said while the fall and winter are typically the time that reservoirs are replenished, the danger is falling too far below normal levels by spring, when water usage ticks upwards sharply.
"That's when things can really sneak up on you," he said.
The long term forecast does offer some hope.
The National Weather Service's six to 10 day forecast indicates the eastern half of the country is at a higher probability for precipitation. While dry and warm conditions are expected to persist through next week, the National Weather Service's forecast for the following week indicates an above average chance for significant precipitation.
"There is something in the models that suggests to the (National Weather Service) that there's going to be a rain event sometime later next week. Whether it occurs and what occurs, obviously, is the question."
Robinson said state residents should be grateful for what happened in June, when the state received more than twice its normal rainfall after drought concerns had mounted in previous months.
"I will say this, I'm less concerned than I was on Memorial Day," he said. "If it weren't for June being the fourth wettest on record, we'd be in deep trouble. We dodged a bullet but now we're back where we were three months ago."
Stephen Stirling may be reached at sstirling@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @sstirling. Find him on Facebook.