Weather data analyzed by NJ Advance Media shows very few Memorial Days in the Garden State have been washouts.
If you ignore all the computer models and weather apps, and try to predict the weather forecast for Memorial Day 2016 based only on past history, the outlook for New Jersey is pretty good.
Turns out Mother Nature has been very kind to the Garden State when it comes to delivering warm temperatures and rain-free days on this particular holiday -- at least during the past 16 years.
Just for fun, and to confirm the accuracy of our long-term memories, we analyzed weather data for three different regions of the state for every Memorial Day from 2000 to 2015.
The 2016 Memorial Day weather forecast
For North Jersey, we checked National Weather Service climate reports from Newark Liberty International Airport, for Central Jersey, we looked at data from the Belmar/Farmingdale weather monitoring site (located at Monmouth Executive Airport in Wall), and for South Jersey we sifted through climate observations for Atlantic City International Airport, which is in Pomona, about 10 miles away from the famous boardwalk.
Here's what we found:
* Thirteen of the past 16 Memorial Days have been nice in South Jersey, 12 have been nice in Central Jersey, and 12 in North Jersey. (Our definition of nice: Days that were completely dry or mostly dry, with more sun than clouds, and temperatures warm enough to enjoy the beach, parades, barbecues or other outdoor activities. If a Memorial Day started out with early-morning showers, but the sky was clear and dry the rest of the day, with temperatures in the 70s, 80s or 90s, we counted that as nice.)
* Only two Memorial Days statewide since 2000 have been total washouts, with overcast skies and rain showers most of the day. That was in 2003 and 2004.
* Temperatures have been average or above average on 12 of the past 16 Memorial Days in North Jersey, and 11 of the past 16 in Central Jersey and South Jersey. (The average temperature in late May -- the average between the daily high and daily low -- ranges from 65 to 68 degrees.)
* Seven of the last 10 Memorial Days had high temperatures hitting the 80s or low 90s in all three regions of the state.
* The worst Memorial Day weather in the past 16 years was on May 26, 2003, when the day was rainy and chilly statewide, with temperatures stuck in the 50s throughout the dreary day.
* The past four Memorial Days were completely dry across the entire state, except for a trace of rain that fell in North Jersey in the wee hours of the morning on Memorial Day 2012.
* Memorial Day 2011 started out with heavy thunderstorms and rain showers in North Jersey around 6 a.m. and light rain from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m., then cloudy the rest of the day. In Central Jersey, early morning showers gave way to mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. South Jersey had no rain that day and temperatures soaring to 91 degrees. (We counted that day as a bad one for North Jersey and a good one for central and southern New Jersey, because it was a nice beach day.)
The current weather outlook for this year's Memorial Day is mixed. Temperatures and humidity levels are expected to rise this weekend, and there's a threat of afternoon showers or thunderstorms on Friday, Sunday and Monday, the day the holiday is observed.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.