Lumbering Hermine could impact N.J. until mid-week, forecasters say

Hermine remains the equivalent of a tropical storm and is expected to regain hurricane strength Sunday, when it turns back toward the coast.

Post-tropical storm Hermine has started to turn north, the start of an achingly slow process where the storm is expected to pivot back toward the coast and linger for days, forecasters from the National Hurricane Center said. 

In their 5 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said Hermine remains the equivalent of a strong tropical storm, with sustained winds of 70 mph.  It is moving east-northeast at 12 mph off the coast of North Carolina, indicating it has started its expected about-face toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.  

Forecasters expect Hermine to slow to a crawl and pivot toward the northwest over the next 24 hours, after which it may sit and spin just off the coast of New Jersey or Delaware for days. 

"The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the holiday weekend and into mid-week," wrote NHC Hurricane Specialist Michael Brennan in the afternoon forecast discussion. 

Why Hermine could be a freak show of a storm in N.J.

Additionally, the NHC expects Hermine to regain hurricane strength by Sunday. Conditions are expected to deteriorate along the New Jersey coast throughout Sunday, but when the worst conditions will occur remains somewhat in question.  

While initially, forecasters expected the worst conditions to occur Sunday night into Monday, if the storm tracks towards the Garden State more slowly, they could be delayed by 12 to 24 hours.

"Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in large differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during the next several days," Brennan said. "In addition, there could be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within the warning area during this time." 

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for all coastal New Jersey counties (including Raritan and Delaware Bays) until further notice.  Governor Chris Christie also issued a state of emergency in three counties. 

Regardless of its exact track, Hermine is expected to bring coastal flooding of varying intensity to the entire Jersey Shore over several high tide cycles, beginning tonight and potentially lasting until Wednesday evening. Local details on tides can be found in the National Weather Service at Mount Holly's latest briefing package. 

Winds are expected to pick up statewide on Sunday, and could top 60 miles per hour along the coast. Extended power outages are possible.

Voluntary evacuations have been advised in many areas, such as Brigantine in Atlantic County. Officials are urging those along the coast who chose to stay to make preparations now. 

"We're talking about a situation where large parts of Long Beach Island could be underwater for long periods of time," said David Robinson, state climatologist at Rutgers University. "Anyone along the coast has to be persistently vigilant and probably should plan on spending Sunday and Monday, at least, elsewhere." 

More details will be posted as they are made available. The next National Hurricane Center update will be at 8 p.m.